Growth Dashboard — Forecasting

North Star: Weekly Active (WAU)

Live · rolling 7d

Current Value

—

distinct weekly active users · all PT properties

Progress to Target — of —

—

Definition

WAU v1 (hardcoded, decision D-5) — metric config UI & definition changelog deferred to a later milestone.

MRR Forecast

Linear regression

Current MRR (last snapshot)

—

Trend / month (fit slope)

—

1-Month

—

—–—

2-Month

—

—–—

3-Month

—

—–—

Method: — over — real snapshot points · band = ±1σ of residuals. A straight-line trend, not a growth model; shown only with ≥8 real points.

A/B Experiments

Descoped

— A/B test results are descoped: they require a Mixpanel / Amplitude / Optimizely experiment API, and this dashboard is first-party only (no such source exists). First-party experiment tracking may return as part of the M4b experiment tracker.

Growth Experiment Tracker Live

Hypothesis	Metric	Status	Expected	Actual
—

CRUD via the admin API (editor+ creates/updates, admin deletes); completion requires a learnings note of at least 50 characters — institutionalized learning is the feature.

What-If Simulator

Client-side · live baseline

Assumption deltas vs the live baseline trend (—):

Growth Rate Δ

—

Churn Rate Δ

—

ARPU Δ

—

Trial CVR Δ

Disabled — no trial data source exists in this stack yet.

12-Month Projected MRR

—

Δ vs Baseline (12 mo)

—

Dashed = live forecast baseline; solid = your scenario. Same linear model as the MRR forecast with your deltas applied — a trend line, not a growth model. The scenario is encoded in the URL hash: copy the address bar to share it.

Goal Tracking

Live · registry-resolved

Goal	Metric	Current	Target	Progress	Status	Days Left
—

Status is computed at read time: achieved (≥ target) · at-risk (<70% of target with <30% of the period left) · on-track · missed (deadline passed). A goal whose metric can't be resolved yet shows '—' and unknown — never 0%. Goals are created via the admin API (editor+) against registry metric keys.